GOP Chances of Retaining House in '24 Grows Stronger As Dems in Swing Districts Not Seeking Re-Election


Republicans currently hold a slim 222 to 213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, but they are looking to build on that majority in 2024.

Decisions by incumbent House Democrats in key swing districts to not seek re-election are improving the Republicans’ chances of doing so.

Politico reported so far five House Democrats have announced they will be vacating their seats to run for U.S. Senate and two of them are in highly competitive districts.

They are Reps. Katie Porter of California and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.

Both incumbents only won their re-election contests by 6 and 3 percentage points respectively.

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Reps. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, and Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee of California, also announced their plans to leave the House to run for Senate, but their districts are solidly blue.

Porter’s and Slotkin’s seats are among the 37 the National Republican Congressional Committee announced Monday that it will be seeking to flip in 2024.

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“Republicans are in the majority and on offense. We will grow our House majority by building strong campaigns around talented recruits in these districts who can communicate the dangers of Democrats’ extreme agenda,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said. “These House Democrats should be shaking in their boots.”

Meanwhile last week the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified 29 of their members who are in the frontline, highly competitive seats going into 2024.

Not surprisingly, the Democrats’ “frontline” competitive districts — like those represented by freshman Mary Peltola in Alaska, Dan Kildee in Michigan, Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia — corresponded with the GOP’s flip list.

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“House Democrats are well positioned to take back the House in 2024, thanks in large part to our tremendous slate of Democrat incumbents who tirelessly advocate for their communities and continue to put People over Politics,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said.

The Cook Political Report has identified 21 toss-up seats going into next year’s elections.

It currently rates 212 districts held by Republicans as leaning to solidly in GOP hands, while on the Democratic side that number is 202.

The Republicans reclaimed the House last November in part by flipping seats in the deep blue states like New York and California.

In New York the GOP picked up four new seats, while in California they added two.

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