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Republicans Open Up Substantial Lead Heading Into Midterms, Red Wave Forming

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Recent polling conducted after the GOP’s strong showing in last week’s off-year elections finds Republicans taking a substantial lead heading into the 2022 congressional midterms.

A USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted from Nov. 3-5 found 46 percent of respondents would vote for a Republican candidate, while 38 percent said they would vote for a Democratic one.

Similarly Emerson College Polling gave GOP candidates a substantial lead, 49 percent to 42 percent, in a survey conducted Nov. 3-4.

Democrats had been up in the so-called generic ballot in nearly every poll throughout the month of October prior to last week’s election, as chronicled by the Real Clear Politics average.

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating hit a new low of 38 percent in the USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Historically when the president’s approval rating has dropped below 50 percent, his party has consistently, going back decades, faced a blowout in the House of Representative in the midterms, which included a loss of control of the chamber.

Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994 when then-President Bill Clinton’s approval was at 48 percent.

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Republicans gave up 30 seats in 2006, when then-President George W. Bush’s approval rating fell to 37 percent.

Four years later in the 2010 midterms, then-President Barack Obama’s approval stood at 45 percent, and the GOP picked up 63 seats.

Most recently in 2018 when 40 percent of Americans approved of then-President Donald Trump’s handling of the job, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House.

Another predictor of how the party out of power heading into the midterms will fare has been the result of the Virginia governor’s race in the year following a presidential election.

Republican takeovers of the House in 1994 and 2010 followed GOP gubernatorial wins in the Old Dominion State the previous year, and the same held true in 2006 for the Democrats.

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Republicans only need to gain five seats to retake the House in 2022, which makes their task of flipping the chamber much easier this time around.

With Biden’s approval rating well below 50 percent and a solid win in the Virginia governor’s race last week, the GOP appears well-positioned to ride a red wave back to power next November.

The USA Today/Suffolk University poll was conducted with 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Emerson College survey was conducted with 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

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